1/14/2024 - 1/20/2024

Climate in the News:

As the winter months continue the Southern United States continues to see evidence of a strong El Nino, represented in this week's 5-Day Total Precipitation Forecast by the Weather Prediction Center. East Texas, and Louisiana, as well as parts of Arkansas and Central Mississippi, are forecast to receive up to 7 inches of rainfall. This rainfall should make a large dent in drought conditions in central Louisiana and western Mississippi where most areas still need about 17 to 18 inches of precipitation to ameliorate drought.

Weather Prediction Center's 5-Day QPF

Weather Synopsis:

The rainfall today and for the next several days is expected due to a forecasted warm front advancing northward from the coast today. Tomorrow it is expected to stall and become a stationary front, before pushing farther northward on Wednesday. Throughout this front's lifetime, areas near the center of the low-pressure system are expected to experience heavy rainfall and thus are at risk for flash flooding.

Weather Prediction Center's Day 2 Outlook

Temperature:

Overall, January is when the Region is consistently seeing cooler temperatures. Frequent cold fronts bring with them colder air masses from the Rocky Mountains and Canada, bringing freezing temperatures to the northern portions of the Region.

Graphic showing the average temperature across the Southern Region for January 14th - 20th

Graphic showing the mean temperature anomalies across the Southern Region for January 14th - 20th

A cold front late into the week prior left the Southern Region this week with bitterly cold temperatures breaking daily record low temperatures left and right. Temperatures for the week were well below normal for the entire region with the exclusion of the portion of far west Texas bordering Mexico. Weekly average temperatures in north-central Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and western Tennessee were as much as 20 degrees Fahrenheit below normal! With weekly average temperatures among the rest of the Region making it ten degrees below normal still. This resulted in the overall temperatures for the week ranging between 40 and 15 degrees Fahrenheit, with the lower bound of this being about 20 degrees lower than the week prior.

Precipitation:

With the majority of the Region being in a humid subtropical climate, rainfall is common at any point of the year. Frequently, during the winter months, cold fronts bring with them showers, thunderstorms, and even frozen precipitation to the Texas panhandle, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. The boundary between the cold and warm air masses serves as a trigger mechanism for storms.

Graphic showing the accumulated precipitation across the Southern Region for January 14th - 20th

Graphic showing the precipitation anomalies across the Southern Region for January 14th - 20th

With the arctic airmass in the region last week precipitation in the region mostly fell in the form of different types of frozen precipitation. Louisiana and Mississippi received freezing rain and sleet early last week which led to school cancellations and slick roadways. Arkansas and Tennessee received significant amounts of snowfall last week. This also caused travel hazards, it was reported by Nashville Police that over 20 crashes occurred during folks’ Monday morning commute. In just this one snowfall event Nashville received more than an entire winter's worth of snow for that area!

Records/Extremes:

  • 1/15/2024: Tulsa, OK: Daily record Low Temperature of -3°F
  • 1/15/2024: Nashville, TN: Daily snowfall accumulation of 6.3 inches
  • 1/16/2024: Tulsa, OK: Daily Record Low Temperature of -2°F
  • 1/16/2024: Fayetteville, AR: Daily Record Low Temperature of -10°F
  • 1/16/2024: College Station, TX: Daily Record Low Temperature of 17°F
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