11/12/2023 - 11/18/2023

Climate in the News:

As the southern region approaches winter a climatological eastward shift of severe weather is observed on average. Once March comes the westward shift of severe weather will be observed to where one would particularly expect it, in tornado alley. But, Dixie Alley (including Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia) has also proven in recent years susceptible to strong, violent tornadoes. Comparing the frequency of severe weather in Dixie Alley from fall to early spring, spring produces a much higher probability of severe storms historically. This does not mean though severe weather events cannot occur in the Fall. While the probability is much lower than the spring, the chance is concentrated in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, East Texas, and Eastern Oklahoma. At this time of year severe weather events are generally wind driven by linearly organized storms. Whereas in the Southern Plains in Spring many severe weather events are initiated by the dryline in West Texas.

Weather Synopsis:

Today, November 20th, portions of East Texas into North/Central Louisiana and Central Mississippi are under an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms. Storms are likely Monday afternoon in East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley by Monday night. The primary hazards will be damaging winds, but several tornadoes are expected, a few of which could possibly be strong due to a conducive environment. However, some small hail is expected in Louisiana and East Texas. Remember to have a tornado preparedness plan with those in your home as severe weather threatens portions of the southern region this week.

Temperature:

Overall, November is when most of the region starts to see temperatures cooling down significantly. Weekly cold fronts are quite common, bringing with them colder air masses from the north.

Rain showers at the beginning of the week left temperatures without much diurnal fluctuation, but as skies cleared toward the middle of the week temperatures rose. Although a weak cold front did pass through the region on Friday, upper-level ridging in the middle of the work week kept temperatures above normal, resulting in the weekly average temperatures being above normal for almost the entirety of the region last week. The exception for this was the Rio Grande Valley, where frequent cloud cover for the first half of the week kept the weekly average temperatures down. Overall, daily average temperatures for the region ranged between 65 and 54 degrees Fahrenheit.

Precipitation:

With the majority of the region being in a humid subtropical climate, rainfall is common at any point of the year. Frequently, during the fall months, cold fronts bring with them showers and thunderstorms. The boundary between the cold and warm air masses serves as a trigger mechanism for storms.

A coastal low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico early last week brought a couple of days of light showers to the lower latitudes of the southern region. But, as this system moved east, clear and sunny skies followed it. This resulted in only the southern half of the region experiencing much precipitation last week. The Lower Rio Grande Valley experienced the most rain from this coastal low, seeing around 4 inches of rain accumulated between Sunday and Monday. Due to this system, areas in far West Texas and South Texas were able to see weekly precipitation accumulations three times greater than normal, and drought-stricken areas of Southern Louisiana and Mississippi were able to receive near-normal precipitation amounts.

Records/Extremes:

• 11/19/23: Electra, TX: 1.0 inch hail was reported