09/22/2024 - 09/28/2024

Climate in the News:

Without a foreseeable escape of above average temperatures and little rainfall in the forecast a sizeable portion of the Southern Region is forecasted to see flash drought conditions. Outlined by the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 Day hazards outlook, much of the eastern half of Texas and Oklahoma as well as western Arkansas are at risk of rapid onset drought (i.e. flash drought). Although, drought conditions are already ongoing in North-Central Texas, Southern Oklahoma, and the Ark-La-Tex region. Check back every Thursday for a new update on drought conditions.

Day 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Map

Weather Synopsis:

After making landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in Florida, Helene swiftly moved inland reaching Eastern Tennessee as a tropical storm. Despite the storms' strength, it resulted in colossal amounts of rainfall in Eastern Tennessee and Western North Carolina, devastating the mountain communities there.

Surface analysis displaying Hurricane Helene

Source: WPC Surface Analysis, 9/27/24 at 10 am CST

Temperature:

Climatologically, temperatures in September are still warm across most of the region. Although, frequent cold fronts are common, bringing with them cooler, more fall-like temperatures.

Graphic showing the average temperature across the Southern Region for September 22nd - 28th

Graphic showing the mean temperature anomalies across the Southern Region for September 22nd - 28th

Temperatures were quite moderate last week across the Southern Region. Last week began with a cold front pushing through the Region which kept temperatures feeling mild for several days until temperatures started to heat back up by the end of the week, resulting in no significant departures from normal temperatures. Weekly average temperatures across the Region were slightly above normal, apart from Central Texas and Oklahoma. Overall weekly average temperatures in the Southern Region were around 70 degrees Fahrenheit, with the warmest average temperatures in South Texas of about 82 degrees Fahrenheit.

Precipitation:

The climate for the majority of the region is humid and subtropical, with rainfall common at any point of the year. Frequently, during the fall months, cold fronts bring showers and thunderstorms. The boundary between the cold and warm air masses serves as a trigger mechanism for storms.

Graphic showing the accumulated precipitation across the Southern Region for September 22nd - 28th

aphic showing the precipitation anomalies across the Southern Region for September 22nd - 28th

Two low-pressure systems were responsible for the precipitation across the Southern Region last week. Associated with the previously mentioned cold front was an upper-level low pressure system which moved through the Region early in the week. This system brought showers and thunderstorms to Central Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. Rainfall totals were about 1.5 inches from these storms, reaching about 3 inches in Bosque and Hill Counties of Texas. Hurricane Helene, a surface low pressure system, brought devastating rainfall to the Southeast United States. Eastern Tennessee saw 8 to 10 inches of rain in the Smoky Mountains. Rainfall caused catastrophic flooding as dams neared failure.