8/15/2024

Last week the Southern Region saw a gradient of temperature anomalies from north to south with much of the Region seeing no precipitation with the expectation of the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. As many areas remained dry soil moisture continued to decrease leading to one-class degradations across Arkansas, Mississippi, and western Tennessee. These degradation led to the expansion of abnormally dry conditions and the introduction of moderate drought (D1) in several areas. Flash drought continues to be a concern in northwest Texas, with rapidly declining soil moisture. Many regions of northwest Texas saw their second or third week of drought degradations. But, heavy rainfall, as much as 6 inches in just a few hours fell near Norman, OK. This resulted in a two-class improvement for the area and larger one-class improvements in the state. These improvements helped to eliminate drought conditions in countries of central Oklahoma.

Looking into the future, as outlined in a key message by the Climate Prediction Center, the second half of August is forecasted to bring a dangerous heat wave and risk of excessive heat to the Southern Region. This heat combined with forecasted below-normal precipitation changes will lead to drought expansion and degradations across the region.