7/25/2024

Last week the majority of the Southern Region saw temperatures normal and several areas saw some of the first significant rainfall totals in several weeks. One of these areas was West-Central Texas, where consistent rainfall led to flooding rivers and creeks in the Hill Country. This rainfall resulted in one-class and even isolated two-class improvements in West-Central Texas. One-class improvements were also observed in Mississippi, the Smoky Mountains of Tennessee, and Northern Arkansas where abnormally dry conditions were removed. Isolated one-class degradations occurred throughout Texas and Mississippi. Most notably a one-class degradation in Far West Texas resulted in the introduction of expectation drought (D4) in Texas. This is the first time the state has seen D4 drought conditions since the very beginning of 2024.

Looking into the future, outlined in a Key Message from the Climate Prediction Center, much of the region is expected to see excessive heat in the beginning of August. They expect drying topsoils with below-normal precipitation changes resulting in the Wichita Falls area of Texas to be at a risk for rapid onset drought.